Geopolitical Backlash From the Financial Crisis: A Prediction

Last month the US government’s National Intelligence Council released a new report on the role of the US in the world in 2025. The report discussed the nature of superpower strife involving the rise of China, the shift of wealth and power from west to east, the increased likely use of nuclear weapons and the reshaping of America. I believe that all these issues are ‘accurate’ and are likely to have a profound impact on the world over the next 20 years. However, one critical factor was overlooked.

Never mind 2025–how about 2009? The current financial crisis is going to evoke a distinct geopolitical backlash. John Pilger’s recent article in the New Statesman draws attention to the fact that with Obama at the helm, there is going to be very little difference in terms of US foreign policy. In fact, Pilger draws attention to emerging evidence that the US has its sights on Iran and Venezuela.

For a start, expect that a bombing and ‘carve-up’ of Iran is likely to occur in the late spring of 2009, instigated by the nuclear technology development excuse, which will only be an excuse. This won’t only affect the western world; it will also disrupt China’s plans for growth–redesigning the political structure of Iran will cut off 40% or so of China’s oil lifeline and will considerably limit the rise of China. In fact, with such an energy shortage, also expect riots and street violence in China: all those new inhabitants of new apartment blocks in new cities will be wondering what happened to their hot water, heating and electricity.

It is true that the climate change issue will progress at its own rate, but the immediacy of foreign policy pursuit by both Britain and the USA is likely to bring the 2025 scenario to us all–just 16 years earlier.